Saturday, July 19, 2014

Historical Charts of Speculative Forex Trading Positioning





EURUSD – Our forex sentiment-based forecast for the Euro/US Dollar has remained relatively neutral, as trading crowds remain effectively balanced in their positioning on the pair. The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.00 as an equal number of traders are long and short the EUR/USD. This has remained unchanged since yesterday, but we do note that long positions have grown an impressive 24.2 percent since last week. Increasingly EUR/USD-bullish crowd sentiment gives us a modestly bearish contrarian trading bias, but positioning is nowhere near extreme enough to make a forceful prediction. Our sentiment-based forex trading signals are accordingly flat the Euro/US dollar through current price action.

USDJPY – Our contrarian forex trading strategies continue to sell the US Dollar/Japanese Yen currency pair, as forex trading crowds remain very bullish the USD/JPY. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.54 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.67 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.0% higher than yesterday and 13.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.2% higher than yesterday and 10.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.5% stronger than yesterday and 36.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses. Yet a modest pullback in longs weakens the strength of our forecast.



GBPUSD – Our forex trading strategies recently bought the British Pound against the US Dollar, as a sharp shift in forex sentiment signaled that further gains were likely. The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are short. A net-short bias is a sharp departure from last week, when the majority of traders were aggressively long the pair. Indeed, GBP/USD short positions are 25.2 percent higher overnight and a massive 76.7 percent above levels seen last week. Our SSI is a contrarian indicator, and the sharp drive towards GBP/USD short positions signals that further gains are likely. Discuss the British Pound with other traders in our forex forum.
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USDCHF – Our sentiment-based bias on the USD/CHF remains relatively neutral, as traders sentiment does not point to gains or losses and open interest is well-below its medium-term average. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.08 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 18.3% higher than yesterday and 6.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 19.3% higher than yesterday and 2.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 18.8% stronger than yesterday and 28.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses. All the same, our forex trading signals are currently aggressively long the USD/CHF.
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USDCAD – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.09 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.1% higher than yesterday and 16.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.2% higher than yesterday and 17.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.1% stronger than yesterday and 40.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses, but the heavily below-average open interest gives us little faith in these forecasts. Tell us and other traders what you think in our forex forum.


How do we interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

British Pound Forecast Turns Bullish on Major Shift in Forex Positioning


Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Remains Neutral on Balanced Forex Positioning
USDJPY – Forex Traders Remain Heavily Long the USD/JPY – Losses Likely
GBPUSD – British Pound Forecasts Turned Bullish on Shift in Sentiment
USDCHF – Forex Sentiment Gives Little US Dollar/Swiss Franc Bias
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Unclear Against US Dollar

While the SSI is available once a week on DailyFX.com, you can receive SSI readings twice a day in DailyFX Plus Forex Intraday Trading Signals

The SSI sought a EURUSD rally since 1.26 and was signaling a reversal around 1.60. Find our more in the DailyFX Forex Forum

Sunday, January 4, 2009

FactExpert


Forex Success May Rely On Accurate Forecast

No one can see into the future. But consulting a Forex forecast can help you gauge the possible risks and profits to be made in foreign currency trading market. The world of Forex is just as large as the global community and many speculators are finding it to be an appealing and profitable area for investment. However, the foreign currency exchange is just as volatile as the world's political and financial climate. That's why your success in currency trading depends on knowing who and what will possibly affect rate changes.

The foreign currency exchange has enough highs and lows to make even a meteorologist's head spin. Financial gurus know that making a Forex forecast isn't easy and you should realize that too. Nothing is a given, but you should make it a point to consult projected rate fluctuations whenever and wherever you can. Staying up-to-date on the latest news and information on the foreign currency exchange can help you determine when to buy, sell and stay out of a particular currency market. This is highly important for the overall performance of your investment accounts. You want to avoid taking losses wherever you can and gain wherever is best.

Investments May Benefit From Daily Forex Forecast

There are some companies that offer Forex forecast information as a subscription. This can help to save you the trouble of running off to various websites to find information. Though that may still be a good idea considering that there is no 100% degree of accuracy in Forex forecasting. If you are looking for a company that offers forecasts at a premium, then you'll want to find one with a good accuracy percentage rate. You'll also want to look for a place that offers some free information or a trial period to give you a good sense of their ability. Being able to receive Forex forecasts through email is also another plus that you should look for.

You shouldn't rely solely on one Forex forecast to make your investment decisions. Your investments represent your future and you should make the best choices possible. Don't put all of your eggs in one basket. Try to get several forecasts from various sources before you buy or sell and keep track of all the latest international news. Knowing when to get in, get out or stay out of a foreign currency market is the key to your financial success in the world of Forex.

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Saturday, January 3, 2009

forex trading

Dollar rises in choppy trade with thin volume

The Dollar rose against the Euro on Monday, reversing early losses in a late surge as investors snapped up the greenback in thin trading after the single currency failed to sustain gains fueled by fighting in the Middle East. The conflict had earlier prompted a flight to traditional safe-havens such as the Swiss franc and Gold. It also led to Euro buying and spurred demand for oil, as well as...


forex - US Session: ISM Manufacturing Collapses Dollar Mixed Against Majors

Despite extremely weak economic data to open the New Year, the dollar managed to gain against some of the majors. The EurUsd dropped over 180pips to mid range of 1.38, while the UsdJpy surged 150pips trading through previous resistance of 92. The GbpUsd fell 165pips to the low 1.45 level testing parity with the Euro over the last week. Equity markets finished convincingly positive in the US and...

10 Husbands, Still a Virgin

A lawyer married a woman who had previously divorced ten husbands.

On their wedding night, she told her new husband, "Please be gentle, I'm still a virgin."

"What?" said the puzzled groom.

"How can that be if you've been married ten times?"

"Well, Husband #1 was a sales representative: he kept telling me how great it was going to be.

Husband #2 was in software services: he was never really sure how it was supposed to function, but he said he'd look into it and get back to me.

Husband #3 was from field services: he said everything checked out diagnostically but he just couldn't get the system up.

Husband #4 was in telemarketing: even though he knew he had the order, he didn't know when he would be able to deliver.

Husband #5 was an engineer: he understood the basic process but wanted three years to research, implement, and design a new state-of-the-art method.

Husband #6 was from finance and administration: he thought he knew how, but he wasn't sure whether it was his job or not.

Husband #7 was in marketing: although he had a nice product, he was never sure how to position it.

Husband #8 was a psychologist: all he ever did was talk about it.

Husband #9 was a gynecologist: all he did was look at it.

Husband #10 was a stamp collector: all he ever did was... God! I miss him! But now that I've married you, I'm really excited!"

"Good," said the new husband, "but, why?"

"You're a lawyer. This time I know I'm gonna get screwed!"